?NSW Gets Downscaled Climate Projections

On December 8th the Impacts and Adaptation Team of the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, officially launched NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modeling Project (NARCliM). NARCliM is a climate change projection model that offers regional climate models for NSW, to a 10km2 resolution. NARCliM represents a global trend in developing regional climate change projections that can be used to make decisions for our societies systems, natural resource management, buildings, and infrastructure. NARCliM’s development began five years ago and in the last two years more than 1 million CPU hours have been used to generate a model with world-leading resolution. While IPCC Global climate models are important to understand large scale trends in climates and inform high level policy making they do not provide the level of detail required for local and regional decision making. NARCliM provides the this regional scale. What does NARCliM tell us about the changing climate in NSW?

  • By 2030 we can expect an increase in average temperature of 0.7 degrees
  • By 2070 we can expect an average temperature increase of 2 degrees.
  • There will be 40 additional extreme hot days above 40 degrees from Bourke to Moree.
  • By 2030 we don’t expect a change in average rainfall across state
  • By 2070 we expect to receive more rainfall in the north of the state, although this is not significant.
  • We expect a significant reduction in rainfall across the snowy mountains
  • Seasonal changes in rainfall patterns are most important
  • There will be a change in Fire Weather – most significant across ranges
  • All models agree that it is getting warmer in every season

For Edge Environment and our clients NARCliM’s more granular climate models means that we can develop more detailed and tailored climate risk assessments across all sectors. NARCliM represents an excellent beginning for better information about the changing climate, and Edge Environment applauds our friends and colleagues in NSW Government agencies for the excellent work to date. We also encourage all Governments to progress down the same path to provide better climate information that supports the development of a more resilient Australia. Edge Environment encourages you to visit the Adapt NSW website and consider how downscaled climate models can be used to better inform your business decisions in a climate changed future.

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